0:00
ever get that feeling like the crypto
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market's just taking off and uh you're
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scrambling oh absolutely bitcoin goes
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nuts Ethereum jumps suddenly there all
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these coins you've never even heard of
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it's a lot yeah information overload is
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real totally and that's why we're here
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right to try and cut through some of
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that noise exactly so today we're doing
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a deep dive we're looking at Bitcoin
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looking at Ethereum mainly through the
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Runfeld you know the moon he's a pretty
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well-known analyst been around a while
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right so you're listening because you
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want to get a handle on what's actually
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moving the market and well you want that
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insight now so our mission today unpack
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why Bitcoin shot past $100 K figure out
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what's up with Ethereum and kind of get
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a sense of what a trader like Runfeld is
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watching and we're basing this mostly on
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a recent Cointelegraph interview with
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him the title was something like uh $300
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K Bitcoin this year carl Moon says it's
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coming yeah saw that one pretty punchy
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title set some high expectations
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definitely so let's dig into it okay
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first up Bitcoin back over six figures
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feels like just yesterday we were
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wondering if it holds $60k right and
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Runfield he's been bullish on Bitcoin
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for ages i mean he was calling for big
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numbers even when it was way down like
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around three grand seriously yeah wow so
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what's underpinning his confidence now
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what's he seeing well it's interesting
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and he kind of blends the long-term view
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with the uh the immediate signals
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fundamentally he keeps pointing back to
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the basics like the blockchain tech
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itself yeah the tech the havingss you
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know where the new supply gets cut and
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just the fact that it's scarce
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digitally scarce that having aspect
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seems huge less new Bitcoin entering the
1:45
market exactly each having creates this
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sort of pre-programmed supply shock
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doesn't it yeah if demand is there which
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lately it really seems to be then uh the
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price naturally has to adjust upwards he
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sees this as a wellestablished pattern
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playing out again so the long-term
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scarcity in havings that's the
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foundation but what about you know right
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now all these headlines about big
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institutions ETFs right the
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institutional adoption piece how much
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does that play into his actual trading
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is he trading the news that's where his
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trader mindset kicks in he definitely
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sees the impact new companies adding
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Bitcoin to treasuries the huge flows
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into the ETFs even states like New
2:22
Hampshire are looking at it okay but for
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actually opening a trade he leans much
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more on technical analysis the charts ah
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okay so not just chasing headlines about
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tariffs or you know some random tweet
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he's looking at the price action itself
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precisely he sees news as well often
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unpredictable noise in the short term
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he'd rather find patterns key support
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and resistance levels on the chart to
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time his entries makes sense control
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what you can control sort of yeah he
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actually mentioned putting on a a pretty
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big $12 million Bitcoin long recently on
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Bybit 12 million whoa and he said that
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was driven by the technicals lining up
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with his overall bullish view not just a
3:01
whim okay that's serious conviction
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based on the charts so what are those
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charts telling him for Bitcoin like in
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the next few weeks his short-term target
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based on that analysis is somewhere in
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the uh $120,000 to $130,000 range wow
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okay so potentially another leg up soon
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if the patterns hold yeah that's what
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he's watching for contingent on the
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technicals of course which leads us to
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that big number from the interview title
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Bitcoin this year is that still his main
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call it seems to be yeah he ties it back
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to those longer cycles the sort of
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four-year rhythm crypto seems to follow
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right the having cycles exactly and he
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references models like uh plan B's stock
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to flow ah yeah the S2F model gets a lot
3:47
of debate but it has tracked
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historically to some degree it has and
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Runfeld seems to think despite the
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critics that model and the historical
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pattern after havingss still provide a
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pretty strong basis for expecting a
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significant peak this cycle so it's not
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just a guess he's grounding it in these
4:03
models and past performance and he's
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putting his money where his mouth is
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right isn't most of his crypto in
4:08
Bitcoin oh yeah he stated I think around
4:10
90% of his crypto portfolio is Bitcoin
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90% okay that's belief definitely
4:15
underscores his conviction and he also
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pointed out look Bitcoin is right near
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its old all-time high if it breaks
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through that decisively then things can
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move fast he thinks so he mentioned
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potentially seeing that $120 K level
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pretty quickly if we get a strong break
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of the previous highs soon makes sense
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breaking resistance often leads to a
4:33
quick move but is he just going to hold
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all the way to $300 K or does he have a
4:38
plan to you know take some profits he
4:41
actually talked about that said he's
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considering uh cashing out some Bitcoin
4:44
if it hits maybe the $150 to $200 range
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oh interesting into what tangible stuff
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apparently real estate maybe some cars
4:53
watches you know locking in some gains
4:56
into physical assets smart de-risking a
4:59
bit what about the inevitable downturn
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the next bare market does he see Bitcoin
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crashing hard again he expects it to
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come back below 100K yeah that seems
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likely in any major crypto bare market
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sure but he doesn't seem to think it'll
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go drastically lower than that and
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interestingly right now he sees this
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period as a fantastic buying opportunity
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for Bitcoin and alts for both yeah for
5:23
this cycle at least okay let's switch to
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alts then ethereum's been waking up
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breaking $2,000 again recently what's
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his take there yeah ETH has had a nice
5:33
move he pointed to a couple of things
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the uh the Pectra upgrade went smoothly
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which is good for the network
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fundamentals right and he's actually
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been calling for people to buy Ethereum
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for a while now even when it was looking
5:45
weaker so his optimism isn't new it's
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not just chasing the recent pump not at
5:49
all he seems pretty confident that the
5:51
downtrend for Ethereum is over and we're
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heading for higher highs he feels like
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the bottom is probably in especially
5:58
after seeing this recent positive price
6:00
action and what kind of levels is he
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thinking for Ethereum this cycle if
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Bitcoin's hitting $300 his range for
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Ethereum was uh pretty wide but bullish
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something like 10,000 to $15,000 per ETH
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10 to 15,000 wow that's a huge jump from
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here what's the logic a big part of it
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is relative value he basically thinks
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Ethereum is uh undervalued compared to
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Bitcoin right now based on their
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historical price ratio ah the ETHBTC
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ratio it has been lagging a bit exactly
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he expects ETH to play catch-up pretty
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strongly during this bull run and was
6:35
there a technical signal too i think he
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mentioned something about a chart level
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yeah he specifically mentioned Ethereum
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breaking above a key resistance level he
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called it a yellow line on his chart he
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saw that as a really strong bullish
6:47
confirmation okay and he also said he's
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currently holding an Ethereum long
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position himself and it's nicely in
6:53
profit so he's trading based on that
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conviction too got it but you know
6:57
Ethereum isn't the only game in town for
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smart contracts you've got Salana Sue
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Aptos loads of competitors does he worry
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about that he definitely acknowledges it
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it's a risk he's aware of he even
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mentioned he bought some Sooie himself
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partly as a hedge against that layer 1
7:15
competition risk for Ethereum
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interesting so he recognizes the threat
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yeah and he's been pretty consistent
7:20
over time saying that Ethereum does have
7:22
competitors in a way that he believes
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Bitcoin just doesn't which explains why
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90% of his crypto is Bitcoin he sees it
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as having no real rivals for its
7:31
specific use case exactly that's his
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core thesis and it really shapes how he
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approaches altcoins how so for him
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altcoins are mainly uh trading vehicles
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opportunities to potentially make big
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gains that he can then roll back into
7:46
more Bitcoin they aren't really
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long-term buy and hold forever assets
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for him in the same way Bitcoin is so
7:52
use the alt season to stack more SATs
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basically pretty much his plan as he
7:57
described it is to sell most of his alts
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near the cycle top hopefully at high
8:01
prices and then use those profits for
8:04
Bitcoin and uh potentially income
8:06
generating real estate during the bare
8:08
market very strategic Bitcoin as the
8:10
base layer asset now Renfeld's journey
8:13
itself is pretty interesting right from
8:15
cashier to crypto millionaire has his
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approach changed yeah it's quite the
8:20
story he mentioned that now that he's
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achieved you know a certain level of
8:23
financial freedom his focus is shifting
8:25
a bit more towards personal stuff like
8:27
he's into motorsports music spending
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time with family and also uh focusing
8:32
more on charity work that's great to
8:34
hear using his success for good yeah he
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specifically mentions supporting
8:38
children with disabilities through
8:40
charity something connected to his own
8:42
family experiences it clearly means a
8:44
lot to him that's really admirable
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definitely and while his life priorities
8:48
might be evolving he's still very much
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managing his wealth and navigating the
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markets he talked about the recent uh
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Bybit security issue oh right was he
8:57
affected he said no his funds were okay
8:59
because of how Bybit handled it but he
9:01
also shared that he took a pretty big
9:03
hit on an Ethereum trade recently when
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the price dipped sharply ah so even the
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pros take losses it's not all wins
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absolutely not it's a good reality check
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he even mentioned having a really
9:16
profitable XRP trade earlier but then
9:19
giving a chunk of those profits back
9:21
with that Ethereum loss it shows how
9:22
cyclical things can be you know making
9:25
money giving some back for sure
9:27
volatility is the name of the game and
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his big takeaway from that experience
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his advice was about taking profits
9:32
especially on leveraged trades you got
9:34
to take some chips off the table and put
9:36
them somewhere safer yeah move them into
9:38
less volatile things maybe even outside
9:40
crypto entirely don't just let it all
9:42
ride indefinitely solid advice so for
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someone just starting out now maybe
9:46
feeling that FOMO what's Runfeld's main
9:49
tip number one straight up buy Bitcoin
9:53
as soon as possible he sees that as step
9:55
one the foundation get your base layer
9:57
secure first exactly and then be really
10:00
careful with altcoins he basically said
10:01
jumping into random alts without
10:03
understanding them is uh mostly gambling
10:05
for newcomers harsh but probably true
10:08
for many yeah so his suggestion for
10:10
people new to the space is maybe just
10:12
focus on buying and holding Bitcoin
10:14
maybe some Ethereum and perhaps a few
10:16
carefully chosen alts for the cycle
10:18
don't feel like you have to actively
10:20
trade ho dealing might be the better
10:22
strategy for most probably he admits
10:24
it's super hard to know which specific
10:26
altcoins are going to be the massive
10:28
winners but he did throw out a couple of
10:30
sectors he finds interesting what ones
10:32
crypto gaming and uh AI related crypto
10:35
projects he sees potential there okay
10:38
interesting themes gaming and AI are
10:40
definitely hot topics everywhere finally
10:43
the million-dollar question or maybe the
10:45
$300 question when does he think this
10:49
party ends when's the cycle top he's
10:51
expecting the peak sometime before the
10:53
end of this year before 2025 okay yeah
10:56
and he described the top as likely
10:58
coinciding with like euphoria and
11:00
craziness in the news you know when your
11:02
grandma starts asking about Dogecoin
11:03
again right the classic mainstream mania
11:06
signal does he have a rough time frame
11:08
like Q4 his guess was actually a bit
11:11
earlier maybe around Q3 so somewhere
11:13
like June July August time frame but he
11:15
added the caveat that you know cycles
11:17
aren't perfectly predictable sure sure
11:19
always hard to pinpoint the exact top
11:21
but Q3 this year it's not that far away
11:24
it's really not it implies the big moves
11:26
might happen relatively soon and he's
11:27
sticking with that $300k Bitcoin target
11:30
for that peak he is he said explicitly
11:32
he wouldn't be surprised at all to see
11:34
$300,000 Bitcoin this cycle but probably
11:36
not like a million dollars this year no
11:39
he tempered expectations there said
11:42
anything significantly above $500,000
11:44
this year would surprise him so $300
11:47
case seems like his realistic bullish
11:49
target zone okay got it so wrapping this
11:52
up Carl Runfeld sees Bitcoin's
11:54
fundamentals the having cycle and
11:56
technicals pointing towards significant
11:58
upside targeting $300 K this year he's
12:01
also bullish on Ethereum catching up
12:03
advises newcomers to focus on Bitcoin
12:05
first be wary of altcoin gambling and
12:08
expects this bull run might peak around
12:09
Q3 2024 that's a pretty good summary but
12:12
you know it's super important to
12:13
remember this is just one analyst's view
12:15
a very experienced one sure but still
12:18
just one perspective in a really complex
12:20
market absolutely it's essential point
12:22
his analysis is a valuable data point
12:24
but it's not gospel you the listener
12:26
need to keep doing your own homework
12:27
definitely so as you think about all
12:29
this here's something to chew on if
12:31
these kinds of market moves do happen
12:34
how might that change how you think
12:35
about your own finances or future plans
12:38
and maybe more importantly what other
12:40
questions does this raise for you what
12:41
else do you need to explore in this
12:43
crypto space now yeah it's a fastmoving
12:45
world got to keep learning