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All right, everyone. Welcome back to the
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channel. Today, we're going to talk
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about Ethereum's most likely path. Last
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week's jobs report was worse than
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expected with negative revisions
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spooking markets and causing them to
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sell off, including Ethereum and other
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risk assets. Markets historically show
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weakness in August and September. You
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can see that in the data here. So, what
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does that mean for Ethereum? Well, when
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Ethereum hits its regression band going
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home, it's often a buying opportunity.
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And by going home, I mean hitting its
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regression band against Bitcoin. This
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has happened five times in the past. In
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2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, and most
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recently in April of 2025. Going home
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typically marks the bottom for ETH
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against BTC, followed by strong rallies.
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For example, in 2016 and 2021, ETHUSD
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hit new all-time highs after ETH BTC
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bottomed. And as you can see here, these
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moments often align with Ethereum going
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home. Recently, in April of 2025,
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Ethereum hit this band, likely bottoming
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against Bitcoin, setting the stage for a
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potential new high. Many people have
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been calling for all-time highs in 2024.
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However, I argued that Ethereum needed
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to go home first, and it did. The
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narrative around ETFs didn't drive the
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price, then price drives the narrative,
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not the other way around. Now, with ETH
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BTC looking stronger, new all-time highs
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are possible by December of 2025.
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However, I could be wrong. My bias
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shifted from bearish to bullish after
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Ethereum hit its regression band,
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forming a macro higher low. Currently,
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Ethereum faces resistance at $3,800 and
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$3,900. And on the weekly chart, the
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weaker path, which reminds me of Tesla's
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price action, Ethereum gets rejected
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now, drops to the bull market support
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$2,800 in August. September forms a
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higher low in September. October breaks
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out to $5,300 to $6,000 by late Q4, then
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Tesla's 2024 pattern, higher low in
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April, rally into July, pull back in
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August, then a cycle top in December
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could be a blueprint. The stronger path,
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Ethereum breaks above $3,900,
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hits $4,800 soon. tests $4,000 as
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support, forms a higher low in
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September, October, then rallies to
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by Q4 before dropping in 2026.
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This hinges on Bitcoin staying green in
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August as seen in past posthav years
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2013, 2017, 2021. Altcoin Bitcoin pairs,
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may hit range lows in October, forming a
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higher low before a final bull market
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pump. Volatility will rise as markets
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chase narratives like weak jobs data or
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inflation fears. Stick to a plan.
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Ethereum at the bull market support band
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or regression band is a solid long-term
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DCA opportunity. I expect new all-time
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highs by December 2025, but Ethereum may
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return to the regression band in 2026.
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A few months of consolidation between
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$3,000 and $4,000 are likely in August,
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September before a breakout. We'll see
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how it plays out. Thanks for tuning in.
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